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Researchers in a growing number of fields--public policy, law, business, medicine, psychology, engineering, and others--are working to understand and improve human judgment and decision making. This book, which presupposes no formal training, brings together a selection of key articles in the area, with careful organization, introduction and commentaries. Issues involving medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labor negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions are treated in this largely expanded volume. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection on judgment and decision making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.
- Sales Rank: #1799528 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Cambridge University Press
- Published on: 1999-12-28
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.98" h x 1.61" w x 5.98" l, 2.30 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 808 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
Review
"The three papers in this section are excellent...In this highly readable paper, Dawes draws on examples from a number of disparate fields to discuss the well known, though surprising, finding that simple weighted means of predictor variables produce more accurate forecasts than experts who are basing their judgment on the same variables." Internationsl Journal of Forcasting
About the Author
Kenneth R. Hammond is Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Former Director of the Center for Research on Judgment and Policy at the University of Colorado, Boulder. A past president of the Society for Judgment and Decision-Making, he is the author of Judgments Under Stress (OUP, 1999), Human
Judgment and Social Policy (OUP, 1996) and editor of The Essential Brunswik (OUP, 2001).
Jonathan Baron is Professor of Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Baron's research is based on the utilitarian idea that society should be organized to do the most good (or to maximize utility). Some of his research examines people's intuitive principles for decision-making and moral judgement, and explores how these principles can stand in the way of doing the most good. Baron is the author of Rationality and Intelligence (1985); Thinking and Deciding (1988, 1994, 2000), a widely used textbook for advanced undergraduates and beyond; Morality and Rational Choice (1993), Judgement Misguided: Intuition and Error in Public Decision Making (1998); and Against Bioethics (2006). He has also co-edited three books and published over 175 papers and chapters. He is the editor of the journal Judgement and Decision Making, and he is currently president of the Society for Judgement and Decision Making. He holds a BA from Harvard and a PhD from Michigan and is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and of the American Psychological Society.
Most helpful customer reviews
3 of 6 people found the following review helpful.
The contribution of J M Keynes to decision making is missing
By Michael Emmett Brady
The major criticism of this book is the omission of any discussion of John Maynard Keynes's unique and highly original contributions to decision making under risk,uncertainty,and ignorance that were made, long before Ellsberg,Tversky and Kahneman were even born,in the A Treatise on Probability in 1921.Keynes,not Ellsberg,was the first to specify an index to take into account the relative credibility of the available information base upon which the decision maker would base his probability calculations.Keynes's index specifies the weight of the evidence,w,as a measure of the completeness of the relevant information currently and potentially available.w is defined on the unit interval [0,1],0
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